Temporary re­venue weak­ness was partly to blame

Autonomous Regions Facing Significant Budget Constraints

Spanish Economy.
Spanish Economy.

Jakob Suwalski and Giulia Branz (Scope Ratings) | Budget cons­traints faced by the au­to­no­mous re­gions make po­licy ad­just­ments and new in­vest­ments dif­fi­cult. By the end of 2022, none of the re­gions met the 13% deb­t-­to-GDP th­res­hold in their fiscal fra­me­work, while the ag­gre­gate fiscal de­ficit wor­sened to 1.1% of GDP from 0.1% in 2021, con­tras­ting with the re­duc­tion in the de­ficit of the ge­neral go­vern­ment, i.e. the cen­tral go­vern­ment plus local and re­gional go­vern­ments. to 4.8% of GDP from 6.9% in 2021.

Temporary revenue weakness was partly to blame, as Spain’s tax equalisation system has a two-year lag in tax settlements, reflecting the fall in pandemic-related tax revenues in 2020. However, the autonomous communities have managed to make few significant cost savings in the aftermath of the pandemic.

In a context of persistent inflation, autonomous communities responsible for essential services will have to reconcile voter pressure to improve the quality of health, education and social welfare with the need to contain costs.

The trade-off between boosting economic growth and safeguarding public finances, without weakening public services, is most acute in the autonomous communities with the least fiscal space, as they tend to be the ones that need to improve their economic attractiveness. The Valencian Community and Catalonia, the two least competitive regions according to the Regional Fiscal Competitiveness Index, are the ones with the highest debt.

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