ENERGÍA

Moody's resalta el efecto beneficioso del acuerdo con YPF sobre Repsol

La agencia cer­ti­fica que be­ne­ficia a las dos com­pañías

Repsol co­mienza a co­se­char los frutos de su acuerdo con el Gobierno de Argentina para la com­pen­sa­ción por la ex­pro­pia­ción par­cial de sus tí­tulos en la pe­tro­lera por­teña YPF. En un des­ta­cado in­forme sobre la ope­ra­ción, la agencia de ra­ting nor­te­ame­ri­cana ase­gura que el acuerdo be­ne­fi­cia, fi­nan­ceira y eco­nó­mi­ca­mente, a las dos em­pre­sas, que me­jo­rarán sus­tan­cial­mente su so­lidez fi­nan­ciera y sol­ven­cia. Para Moody's, ade­más, no existe prác­ti­ca­mente riesgo para que la em­presa que pre­side Antonio Brufau no cobre las can­ti­dades pac­tadas -por en­cima de 5.000 mi­llones de dó­la­res-, aunque sea en bonos de deuda ar­gen­tina. Moodys re­cuerda que Repsol aun con­serva el 12,38% de YPF, que a pre­cios de mer­cado vale 1.300 mi­llones de dó­la­res.

Por su interés, reproducimos en ingles la nota de Moody's:

"The deal acknowledges Repsol's right to receive financial compensation for the expropriation of its controlling stake in oil and gas producer YPF, which is domiciled in Argentina. Repsol will receive dollar-denominated tradable bonds with an initial market value of no less than $4.67 billion, issued by the sovereign. Should their market value be less than $4.67 billion four days prior to closing (based on the 90-day average of quotations to be provided by international financial institutions at that time), Argentina would have to deliver additional bonds to make up the shortfall with a nominal value of up to $1 billion.  

In addition, Repsol still owns a 12.38% equity interest in YPF, which has a current market value of around $1.3 billion. The stake ensured that Repsol retained two seats on the Argentine company's board, but following the settlement, there is no longer any reason for Repsol to hold on to it. We expect Repsol to divest the shares, even though it is likely to do so gradually.  

All in all, the potential early monetisation and gradual redemption of the bond holdings, in parallel with the sale of the YPF shares, should give Repsol an additional source of cash to invest in the continuing growth of its exploration and production activities, including potential bolt-on acquisitions. The cash should enable Repsol to further strengthen and improve the geographical and technological mix of its oil and gas upstream portfolio, to which it has already allocated average annual capex of $3.8 billion under its strategic plan for 2012-2016.

Based on its 2013 preliminary results and pro forma the liquefied natural gas asset sale completed in January 2014, we estimate that the group had net debt of around €9.1 billion ($12.5 billion)1 at year end and around a 25% retained cash flow to net debt ratio.  

However, considering Argentina's weak credit standing and the extended maturity profile of the bond portfolio to be transferred to Repsol, whether the Spanish oil and gas company ultimately recovers the full $5 billion compensation remains to be seen. The international capital markets apply material discounts to the face value of B3-rated Argentina bonds, reflecting their high-risk profile and lack of liquidity.  

Significantly, Argentina's obligation will not be extinguished until Repsol has recovered the $5 billion compensation amount in full. And should Argentina restructure its debt or default on its obligations, Repsol would have the right to seek payment of any outstanding amount through the United Nations Commission on International Trade Law.  

For YPF, the deal is also credit positive because the company will not need to use its balance sheet to fund the compensation to Repsol. Also, because Repsol had threatened lawsuits against companies that invested with YPF after its nationalization, this settlement removes an impediment for foreign companies to sign joint venture investment agreements with YPF. Foreign partners could be an important source of capital and expertise to help YPF develop its substantial shale resources".

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